MSCI is dropping Strategy from its index, and the exclusion could hit its bitcoin-buying machine

MSCI is dropping Strategy from its index, and the exclusion could hit its bitcoin-buying machine

MSCI’s decision to exclude Strategy from its equity indexes could hamper the company’s ability to buy more bitcoin, according to some analysts.

MSCI will remove Strategy, the largest publicly listed holder of bitcoin, from its global equity indexes after the close on Nov. 30 under new rules excluding nonoperating companies.

Index provider MSCI confirmed it will remove Strategy MSTR$118.16, the largest publicly listed holder of BTC, from its widely-tracked global equity indexes, including the MSCI USA Index, after the close on Nov. 30.

It did so under a new screen for “non-operating” companies adopted on Oct. 15, which also led to the exclusion of Tokyo-listed bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet (3350) from the MSCI Japan Small Cap Index.

MSCI’s indexes are baskets of stocks that many funds are mandated to copy. When a stock is excluded, funds tracking that index have to sell their shares, creating selling pressure. The exclusion does not delist the stock from exchanges, and it does not force Strategy to sell its bitcoin. Strategy holds 850,364 BTC ($62.6 billion) as of this writing.

Passive selling

"MSCI-tracking funds would need to sell an estimated 13M shares, roughly 3.1% of shares outstanding and less than one day's typical trading volume," it said in an X post.

That is consistent with Strategy's analysis. In its response to MSCI’s consultation, Strategy said funds tracking MSCI’s global investable indexes hold about 13 million of its shares, or 3.1% of its basic shares outstanding.

JPMorgan, however, estimated in November 2025 that MSCI’s exclusion could trigger about $2.8 billion in outflows. It said the total could rise to $8.8 billion if other index providers followed suit. The bank's forecast, however, was based on an initial MSCI proposal, not the final rules adopted in this review.

Impact on fresh BTC purchases

This forced selling, and the loss of passive index demand that comes with it, is what analysts think could affect how Strategy pays for new bitcoin.

To understand that, start with mNAV, a figure that tracks the value the market puts on the company relative to the value of its bitcoin holdings. When it is above 1, investors are paying more for the shares than the company’s bitcoin stash is worth. Below 1 suggests the opposite.

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Strategy has historically funded its bitcoin purchases by issuing convertible notes, preferred stock, and common shares via an at-the-market program. This playbook relies on the stock trading at a premium – an mNAV (multiple of net asset value) above 1x. Because each new share sells for more than the bitcoin backing it, the issuance is accretive, boosting bitcoin per share for existing investors. Near 1x mNAV, issuing equity adds little value; below 1x, it becomes dilutive.

The loss of passive demand could squeeze that premium further, weakening the buying model.

mNAV has already compressed

Strategy’s mNAV has already compressed from a 3.4x peak in November 2024 to roughly 1.08x as of this writing.

The resulting shift in how it uses capital is evident from the Nov. 9 filing for the week ended Nov. 8. The firm raised $283.8 million by selling 2.05 million common shares, but used only $81.9 million toward bitcoin (1,036 BTC). The bulk – $188.3 million – went to buying back its STRC preferred stock, with $13.6 million added to cash.

The same filing shows a $4.77 billion cash reserve as of Nov. 8. Strategy drew $21.1 million from it that week to pay preferred dividends, and it reported no bitcoin sales.

He added that many funds were already underweight the stock, meaning they hold less of it than the index calls for, so the selling pressure could be smaller than the headline suggests.

“Confirmation of exclusion could bring an estimated $2.8B+ of selling pressure and $11B+ if other indexes followed. Beyond the immediate impact, this will be a major blow to the ‘institutional adoption’ narrative that the entire model is increasingly hinging on,” he said.

What comes next?

For Thielen, the answer is a different kind of bitcoin-holding company, one that acts like an asset manager rather than just a BTC-accumulating firm, which doesn’t add value beyond just stashing bitcoin.

“To change that, treasury companies need to act more like asset managers,” he said. “They should put their asset base to work with yield strategies and show investors they can outperform the market. That takes a different skill set from financial engineering.”

Olenik said the same, more bluntly, calling the index exclusion “good riddance.”

> “It’s time to stop promoting the problem and start promoting the solution: Treasury 2.0.”

In other words, companies should stop merely stacking coins and build something with them.

“The evolution towards BTC-native operating models. Acquiring BTC for a productive purpose. Building Bitcoin infrastructure, driving network adoption and monetary utility, and deploying, earning and compounding sats for shareholders through real operations at the forefront of the emerging agentic era,” he noted.

Strategy Inc$118.16 -3.35%

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Diversified RWA stablecoins sustain 5-7% yield from real credit as crypto funding compresses to ~4%. GENIUS pushes yield off-chain; TAM grows to $4B in 3 years.

Diversified RWA stablecoins sustain 5-7% yield from real credit as crypto funding compresses to ~4%. GENIUS pushes yield off-chain; TAM grows to $4B in 3 years.

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